Baadur Jobava vs Khagan Ahmad: game review

19…Qc6 is a mistake: Black's winning chances go from 49% to 30%.

• White answers 20.Rd4: adds a decisive attacker on the knight on c4: 2 attackers against 1 defender.
• Better was 19…g5 (+0.08), which pushes a pawn towards the White king, to pry open lines in front of it.

Better: 19…g5 pushes the pawn storm towards the king and takes h4 and f4 away from the queen. Engine line: 20.Bxc4 Qxc4 21.Rxd6 Nxe4 22.Qe5 Nf6 (+0.08).

20.Rd4! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Adds a decisive attacker on the knight on c4: 2 attackers against 1 defender.
• Shores up the e4 pawn, which was under as much attack as it had defence (2 against 1).
• The next best move, 20.Bxc4, would drop White's winning chances from 70% to 58% (+0.83).
• 20.Rd4 threatens Rxc4, winning the queen for a rook.
• It threatens Rxc4, winning the queen for a rook, so Black has to spend the next move on it.
• Black answers 20…b5, leaving White with no bishop pair.

24…Qb6 is a blunder: Black's winning chances go from 42% to 20%.

• White answers 25.e5: the pawn kicks the knight on f6, which has to move.
• Better was 24…Ra8 (+0.86): the rook takes the open a-file, aiming at the rook on a1.

Better: 24…Ra8 threatens …Rxa1, winning a rook for a pawn, and takes the open a-file, aiming at the rook on a1. After 25.Rxa8 Rxa8 26.Rxc4 Qb7 27.Qxh6 Bc6, the rooks are traded and Black is two pawns down (+0.86).

25.e5! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The pawn kicks the knight on f6, which has to move.
• Protects the rook on d4, which was hanging.
• The next best move, 25.Nf3, would drop White's winning chances from 80% to 64% (+1.58).
• 25.e5 stops …Qxd4 and threatens exf6, winning a knight.
• Black was threatening …Qxd4, winning a rook. e5 takes care of it.
• It threatens exf6, winning a knight, so Black has to spend the next move on it.

26.Rxd7!! A real sacrifice: White gives up material and the engine still rates it best.

• Puts the rook on d7 where it can be taken.
• Black can take, but after 26…Nxd7 27.Qxe7 Qd8 28.Qd6 the engine rates it +3.68.
• Takes the bishop on d7.
• The rook reaches the seventh rank, where 1 pawn sits and the king is cut off on the back rank.
• 26.Rxd7 wins a bishop for a rook and trades off the attacked rook instead of losing it to …exd4.
• Takes the bishop on d7 and wins a bishop for a rook once the captures settle.

• The idea: 26.Rxd7!! offers the rook on d7. Taking it gives White the material back and more.
• What White gives up: 26.Rxd7 puts the rook on d7 where it can be taken by the knight on f6. That's a whole rook on offer.
• What it does instead: It takes the bishop on d7.
• If Black takes the rook: 26…Nxd7 is met by 27.Qxe7, taking the bishop on e7. Then 29.Nxc4 takes the c4 pawn, and 30.Nxd6 takes the queen on d6. White ends up two pawns ahead: White is winning (+4.27). This is Black's best try.
• Without the sacrifice: The best move without the sacrifice, 26.Rxc4, is clearly weaker (+0.07 against +3.68). Black answers 26…Rxc4, taking the rook on c4 and threatening …Rxh4, winning the queen. That would leave White level.

28…Ra8 is a mistake: Black's winning chances go from 15% to 4%.

• White answers 29.Nxg5, which takes the pawn on g5.
• After Nxg5, White wins 1 point of material within 2 moves.
• Better was 28…f6 (+4.77): shores up the g5 pawn, which was under as much attack as it had defence (3 against 1).

Better: 28…f6 stops Bxg5. After 29.Qg6+ Kh8 30.h4 Rc7 31.Qh6+ Kg8 32.hxg5 fxg5 33.Bxg5 Bxg5 34.Qxg5+ Kh7, the bishops are traded and Black is a pawn down (+4.77).

29.Rb1 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 96% to 80%.

• Black answers 29…f5, which attacks the knight on e4.
• Better was 29.Nxg5 (+8.89), which takes the pawn on g5.

Better: 29.Nxg5 threatens Qh7#, with mate in 1, and wins the queen for 8 points of material. After 29…Nf6 30.Nce4 Qxf2+ 31.Kxf2 Nxe4+ 32.Nxe4 Rxa1 33.Ng5 Bxg5 34.Qxg5+ Kh8, the knights are traded and White comes out a piece and a pawn up (+8.89).

31…Ra7 is a mistake: Black's winning chances go from 23% to 8%.

• White answers 32.Qh6+: check, and Black has only one legal reply.
• Better was 31…f5 (+3.31), which attacks the knight on e4.

Better: 31…f5 threatens …fxe4, winning a knight. After 32.Qh6+ Kg8 33.Nxg5 Nf6 34.Be3 Qc6, Black is a pawn down (+3.31).

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 9…Qc7: 18 moves in all, 9 by White and 9 by Black.
• Theory runs out after 9…Qc7: too few games between strong players reached this position to go further.