Ethan Vaz vs Chithambaram VR. Aravindh: game review

30.Rd3 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 48% to 35%.

• Black answers 30…Kf8.
• Better was 30.Qc3 (−0.18): shores up the c4 pawn, which was under as much attack as it had defence (1 against 1).

Better: 30.Qc3 shores up the c4 pawn. After 30…Kf8 31.Kh3 Qd6 32.Qe3 c5 33.d5 exd5 34.cxd5 Re8 35.Rxe8+ Nxe8 36.Qc3, the rooks are traded (−0.18).

31.Kh3 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 36% to 24%.

• Black answers 31…c5: a pawn break: it challenges the d4 pawn to open lines.
• After c5, Black wins 1 point of material within 4 moves.
• Better was 31.d5 (−1.54): a pawn break: it challenges the c6 pawn to open lines.

Better: 31.d5 challenges the c6 pawn and opens the line of the queen on e3 to the b6 pawn. Engine line: 31…Rd6 32.c5 Rxd5 33.Bxd5 Nxd5 34.Rexd5 cxd5 35.cxb6 d4 (−1.54).

31…c5! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• A pawn break: it challenges the d4 pawn to open lines.
• The next best move, 31…Rd6, would drop Black's winning chances from 76% to 58% (−0.85).
• 31…c5 wins a pawn, picking it up with 32…exd5.
• Sets up a sequence and wins a pawn once the captures settle, picking it up with 32…exd5.
• White answers 32.d5, opening the line of the queen on e3 to the c5 pawn, leaving Black with a king with pawns missing from its shelter.
• After 32.d5 exd5 33.Qe2 Rd6 34.Qe1 d4, Black comes out a pawn up (−2.85).

32…exd5! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Takes the pawn on d5.
• The next best move, 32…Ng8, would drop Black's winning chances from 77% to 48% (+0.22).
• 32…exd5 wins a pawn.
• Takes the d5 pawn and wins a pawn once the captures settle.
• White answers 33.Qe2, leaving Black with a king with pawns missing from its shelter.
• After 33.Qe2 Rd6 34.Qd2 d4 35.Qxb4 axb4 36.Bc2, the queens come off and Black comes out a pawn up (−2.92).

37…Re1! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The next best move, 37…Re7, would drop Black's winning chances from 87% to 50% (0.00).
• 37…Re1 threatens …Rh1+, with mate in 2.
• It threatens …Rh1+, with mate in 2, so White has to spend the next move on it.
• The engine's plan continues with …Qd1 and …Ne5: this move is the first step.
• White answers 38.Qg2.
• Engine line: 38.Qg2 Qd1 39.Kh2 Ne5 40.Bf1 Re3 (−5.64).

39…Ne5! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Attacks the bishop on c4, which is undefended.
• Shores up the f7 pawn, which was under as much attack as it had defence (2 against 1).
• The next best move, 39…Re7, would drop Black's winning chances from 91% to 76% (−3.13).
• 39…Ne5 wins the exchange, picking it up with 40…Rxe5, and stops Rd5.
• Sets up a sequence and wins the exchange once the captures settle, picking it up with 40…Rxe5.
• White was threatening Rd5, winning a knight, picking it up with 40.Rxd7. Ne5 takes care of it.

49.Qxb6 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 2% to 0%. It allows mate in 5.

• Black answers 49…Rh1+: the rook joins the attack: it now hits 2 squares around the White king.
• Better was 49.Qh2 (−11.01), which moves the attacked queen to safety.

Better: 49.Qh2 threatens Qe5+, joining the attack on the king, and stops the mate threat …Rxf2. After 49…Rh1 50.Qxh1 Qxh1+ 51.Kg3 Qg1+ 52.Kh3, White is a piece and a pawn down (−11.01).

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 10.Nxd5: 19 moves in all, 10 by White and 9 by Black.
• Theory runs out after 10.Nxd5: too few games between strong players reached this position to go further.