LeonLivaic2000 vs MagnusCarlsen: game review

21.Bf4 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 39% to 27%.

• Black answers 21…Qe7.
• Better was 21.a5 (−1.18): a pawn break: it challenges the b6 pawn to open lines.

Better: 21.a5 threatens axb6, winning a pawn. After 21…Nxa5 22.Rxa5 bxa5 23.Qf4 g3 24.fxg3 Nxg3 25.Bxc4 Bc6, White is two pawns down (−1.18).

22…Ncxd4! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Takes the pawn on d4.
• Moving away uncovers the bishop on d7, which now hits the rook on b5.
• The next best move, 22…fxe5, would drop Black's winning chances from 77% to 66% (−1.84).
• 22…Ncxd4 wins the exchange and stops axb6.
• Takes the d4 pawn and wins the exchange once the captures settle.
• White was threatening axb6, winning a pawn. Ncxd4 takes care of it.

28.g3 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 25% to 10%.

• Black answers 28…Qd2: the queen forks the bishop and the knight: both can't be saved at once.
• Better was 28.Bf4 (−2.96), which attacks the queen.

Better: 28.Bf4 threatens Bxg5, winning the queen. After 28…Qh4 29.Qxh4 Nxh4 30.Bd6 Rf7 31.Re1, the queens come off (−2.96).

28…Qd2! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The queen forks the bishop and the knight: both can't be saved at once.
• The next best move, 28…Ba4, would drop Black's winning chances from 90% to 74% (−2.80).
• 28…Qd2 forks the bishop and the knight.
• White answers 29.Bd1.
• After 29.Bd1 Ba4 30.f4 Qxc3 31.Qf2 Qxg3+ 32.Qxg3 Nxg3 33.Kf2 Bxc2 34.Bxc2 Nxh5, the queens come off and Black comes out a piece up (−6.33).

35…Bxd5 is a blunder: Black's winning chances go from 91% to 61%.

• White answers 36.Rxe1, which takes the queen on e1.
• The bishop walks into a pin by the queen on g2.
• After Rxe1, White wins 3 points of material within 4 moves.
• Better was 35…Qxa1 (−6.34), which takes the rook on a1.

Better: 35…Qxa1 wins a rook. After 36.Bxc6+ Kxc6 37.Ne7+ Kb5 38.Qc6+ Kb4 39.Nxg8 Qf1, the bishops are traded (−6.34).

38.Bc2 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 40% to 22%.

• Black answers 38…Nxd4, which takes the pawn on d4.
• After Nxd4, Black wins 2 points of material within 4 moves.
• Better was 38.d5 (−1.13): moving away uncovers the bishop on e5, which now hits the c3 pawn.

Better: 38.d5 threatens dxe6, winning a pawn, and stops …Nxd4. After 38…Rxd5 39.Bxc3 Rc8 40.Bf6 Rd2 41.Rxe6 Rc4, White comes out a pawn up (−1.13).

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 9.Bd2: 17 moves in all, 9 by White and 8 by Black.
• Black left the book with 9…Nge7. In 51 games from this position, strong players played 9…c4 (65%) or 9…Bd7 (33%).
• The main line goes on 9…c4 10.h4 h6 11.h5.
• From here White scored 43% in those games, with 6% drawn.