SeanWinshand vs SicilianPanzer: game review

10.e5 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 55% to 41%.

• Black answers 10…Nxd5, which takes the pawn on d5.
• Better was 10.Qd2 (+0.51): clears the last piece between king and rook: castling queenside is now possible.

Better: 10.Qd2 clears the way to castle queenside. Engine line: 10…h5 11.Ne2 Nbd7 12.c3 O-O 13.Rc1 (+0.51).

25.h5 is a blunder: White's winning chances go from 50% to 28%.

• Black answers 25…g5, which attacks the knight on f4, which is undefended.
• Better was 25.Qc4 (0.00).

Better: 25.Qc4 prepares Nd3 and Qb5. Engine line: 25…Rd7 26.Nd3 Rc8 27.Qb5 Bc6 28.Qa6 (0.00).

25…Kg7 misses the chance 25.h5 gave: g5 would have punished it. Black's winning chances go from 72% to 50%.

• White answers 26.Qc4.
• Better was 25…g5 (−2.58), which attacks the knight on f4, which is undefended.

Better: 25…g5 threatens …gxf4, winning a knight. Engine line: 26.Nh3 h6 27.Qb5 Bc8 28.Kh2 Bf5 (−2.58).

27.Kh2 is a blunder: White's winning chances go from 50% to 21%.

• Black answers 27…Rd6.
• Better was 27.Rd1 (0.00): the rook takes the open d-file, aiming at the bishop on d4.

Better: 27.Rd1 takes the open d-file, aiming at the bishop on d4. After 27…Rd6 28.Rxd4 Rxd4 29.Qxc5 Re1+ 30.Kh2 Rxf4 31.h6+ Kxh6 32.Qd6, White is the exchange plus a pawn down (0.00).

27…Rd6! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The next best move, 27…Be3, would drop Black's winning chances from 79% to 61% (−1.27).
• 27…Rd6 threatens …Ba6, winning a rook and a pawn, picking it up with 29…Bxf1.
• It threatens …Ba6, winning a rook and a pawn, picking it up with 29…Bxf1, so White has to spend the next move on it.
• It prepares …Ba6: the rook covers a6.
• White answers 28.Nd3, adding pressure on the b4 pawn.
• Engine line: 28.Nd3 Ba6 29.Qa2 Re2 30.h6+ Kg8 (−3.97).

28.Kh3 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 19% to 6%.

• Black answers 28…Ba6, which skewers the queen: when it moves, the rook on f1 behind it falls.
• After Ba6, Black wins 5 points of material within 4 moves.
• Better was 28.Nd3 (−3.97): adds a decisive attacker on the b4 pawn: 2 attackers against 1 defender.

Better: 28.Nd3 threatens Nxc5, winning a bishop. Engine line: 28…Ba6 29.Qa2 Re2 30.h6+ Kg8 31.Nc1 (−3.97).

29…Ba6! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Skewers the queen: when it moves, the rook on f1 behind it falls.
• Attacks the queen.
• The next best move, 29…g5, would drop Black's winning chances from 94% to 81% (−3.88).
• 29…Ba6 threatens …Bxc4, winning the queen, and skewers the queen and the rook on f1.
• It threatens …Bxc4, winning the queen, so White has to spend the next move on it.
• White answers 30.h6+, pushing the pawn storm towards the king.

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 4.f3: 7 moves in all, 4 by White and 3 by Black.
• Black left the book with 4…Qb6. In 20 games from this position, strong players played 4…d6 (60%) or 4…g6 (20%).
• From here White scored 37% in those games, with 12% drawn.