gurelediz vs nihalsarin: game review

32.hxg5 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 50% to 39%.

• Black answers 32…h4: a pawn break: it challenges the g3 pawn to open lines.
• After h4, Black wins 2 points of material within 8 moves.
• Better was 32.Qd3 (0.00).

Better: 32.Qd3 threatens Qxf5, winning a pawn. After 32…gxh4 33.Qxf5 Bxf5 34.gxh4 Bc2 35.Ra1, the queens come off (0.00).

32…h4! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• A pawn break: it challenges the g3 pawn to open lines.
• Pushes a pawn towards the White king, to pry open lines in front of it.
• The next best move, 32…Qxg5, would drop Black's winning chances from 61% to 51% (−0.08).
• 32…h4 wins two pawns, picking it up with 33…Qxg5, and threatens …hxg3, winning a pawn.
• Sets up a sequence and wins two pawns once the captures settle, picking it up with 33…Qxg5.
• It threatens …hxg3, winning a pawn, so White has to spend the next move on it.

33.gxh4 is a blunder: White's winning chances go from 41% to 4%.

• Black answers 33…Qh3: the queen joins the attack: it now hits 4 squares around the White king.
• After Qh3, Black wins 9 points of material within 4 moves.
• Better was 33.Qd3 (−0.96).

Better: 33.Qd3 threatens Qxf5, winning a pawn, and stops …hxg3. After 33…Qxg5 34.Qe3 Qxe3 35.fxe3 Bxg3 36.Ra1, the queens come off and White is two pawns down (−0.96).

33…Qh3! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The queen joins the attack: it now hits 4 squares around the White king.
• Attacks the h4 pawn, which is undefended.
• The next best move, 33…Qf4, would drop Black's winning chances from 96% to 58% (−0.84).
• 33…Qh3 threatens …Bh2+, with mate in 4.
• It threatens …Bh2+, with mate in 4, so White has to spend the next move on it.
• White answers 34.Qe3.

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 13.b4: 25 moves in all, 13 by White and 12 by Black.
• Theory runs out after 13.b4: too few games between strong players reached this position to go further.