gurelediz vs Philippians46: game review

21…f5 misses 21…Bf8, which wins material. Black's winning chances go from 72% to 56%.

• White answers 22.Nb5: adds a attacker on the a7 pawn: 2 attackers against 2 defenders.
• Better was 21…Bf8 (−2.54), which attacks the rook on a3.

Better: 21…Bf8 threatens …Bxa3, winning the exchange. After 22.Rb3 Na5 23.Nd4 Nxb3 24.axb3 Bc6 25.Bxc6 bxc6 26.Rd2, the bishops are traded and Black comes out two pawns up (−2.54).

24.Ne1 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 44% to 32%.

• Black answers 24…b5: a pawn break: it challenges the c4 pawn to open lines.
• Better was 24.Ncd4 (−0.60), which protects the c4 pawn, which was hanging.

Better: 24.Ncd4 stops …Qxc4. Engine line: 24…Na5 25.Rc3 h6 26.h4 Rd6 27.Qa3 (−0.60).

27.Nxc6 misses 27.Ra3, which wins material. White's winning chances go from 50% to 14%.

• Black answers 27…Rd1: the rook forks the queen and the knight: both can't be saved at once.
• After Rd1, Black wins 4 points of material within 4 moves.
• Better was 27.Ra3 (0.00), which attacks the bishop on a4, which is undefended.

Better: 27.Ra3 wins a bishop for a pawn, picking it up with 28.exd4, and threatens Rxa4, winning a knight for a pawn. After 27…Nxd4 28.exd4 Qxd4 29.Rxa4 Qd1 30.Qxd1 Rxd1 31.Kf1, the knights are traded, the queens come off and White comes out two pawns up (0.00).

27…Rd1! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The rook forks the queen and the knight: both can't be saved at once.
• Pins the knight on e1 to the king: it can't move at all.
• The next best move, 27…Bxc6, would drop Black's winning chances from 86% to 56% (−0.62).
• 27…Rd1 wins the queen for a rook, picking it up with 28…Bxd1, and gets the rook out of the way of Nxd8.
• Sets up a sequence and wins the queen for a rook once the captures settle, picking it up with 28…Bxd1.
• White was threatening Nxd8, winning a bishop. The rook steps away.

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 7.Nc2: 13 moves in all, 7 by White and 6 by Black.
• Theory runs out after 7.Nc2: too few games between strong players reached this position to go further.