Hao Wang vs Xiangyu Xu: game review

17…Bh6 is a mistake: Black's winning chances go from 42% to 24%.

• White answers 18.f5: the pawn kicks the queen on e6, which has to move.
• Better was 17…Bf8 (+0.92), which attacks the queen.

Better: 17…Bf8 threatens …Bxb4, winning the queen for a bishop, and stops fxe5+. After 18.Qc3 Kg7 19.f5 Qd7 20.f6+ Kg8 21.Qxd3 Qe6, Black is a pawn down (+0.92).

18.f5! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The pawn kicks the queen on e6, which has to move.
• A pawn break: it challenges the g6 pawn to open lines.
• The next best move, 18.cxd3, would drop White's winning chances from 76% to 58% (+0.92).
• 18.f5 threatens fxe6+, winning the queen, and stops …Rhb8.
• It threatens fxe6+, winning the queen, so Black has to spend the next move on it.
• Black was threatening …Rhb8, winning a pawn, picking it up with 19…dxc2. f5 takes care of it.

20.Nf3! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The next best move, 20.Qc3, would drop White's winning chances from 77% to 65% (+1.72).
• 20.Nf3 stops …dxc2.
• Black was threatening …dxc2, winning a pawn. Nf3 takes care of it.
• The engine's plan continues with Nh4 and cxd3: this move is the first step.
• Black answers 20…Kg7.
• After 20…Kg7 21.Nh4 Kg8 22.cxd3 Bf4 23.g3, White comes out a pawn up (+2.98).

26.Rf3! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The next best move, 26.Nh4+, would drop White's winning chances from 85% to 58% (+0.85).
• 26.Rf3 wins a pawn, picking it up with 27.Qxc6+.
• Sets up a sequence and wins a pawn once the captures settle, picking it up with 27.Qxc6+.
• Black answers 26…Qf8.
• After 26…Qf8 27.Qxc6+ Kh7 28.Nd6 f6 29.Rg3, White comes out a pawn up (+5.68).

28.Rh3 misses 28.Nd6, which wins material. White's winning chances go from 89% to 52%.

• Black answers 28…Rb8: the rook takes the open b-file.
• Better was 28.Nd6 (+5.73): moving away uncovers the rook on f3, which now hits the f7 pawn.

Better: 28.Nd6 threatens Rxf7+, winning the queen for a rook. After 28…f6 29.Rg3 Qe7 30.Nf5 Rhc8 31.Nxe7 Rxc6 32.Nxc6 Rc8, White comes out the exchange plus a pawn up (+5.73).

28…Rc8 is a blunder: Black's winning chances go from 48% to 2%.

• White answers 29.Rxh6+, which takes the pawn on h6.
• After Rxh6+, White wins 1 point of material within 2 moves.
• Better was 28…Rb8 (+0.26): the rook takes the open b-file.

Better: 28…Rb8 takes the open b-file. After 29.Rxh6+ Kg8 30.Rxh8+ Kxh8 31.Qf6+ Kg8, the rooks are traded and Black is a pawn down (+0.26).

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 5.d3: 9 moves in all, 5 by White and 4 by Black.
• Theory runs out after 5.d3: too few games between strong players reached this position to go further.