Hikaru Nakamura vs Praggnanandhaa R: game review

37.c5! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Moves the attacked pawn to safety.
• Pushes the passed pawn to c5.
• The next best move, 37.Bxe5, would drop White's winning chances from 65% to 50% (0.00).
• 37.c5 saves the attacked pawn and pushes the passed pawn to c5.
• Shores up the bishop on d6, which was under as much attack as it had defence (1 against 1).
• Black answers 37…Bd8.

39.Rb6 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 64% to 54%.

• Black answers 39…Be7.
• Better was 39.Rxe4 (+1.59), which takes the pawn on e4.

Better: 39.Rxe4 wins a pawn and threatens Rxb4, winning a pawn. After 39…b3 40.Rb6 b2 41.Reb4 Ra8 42.Ke2, White comes out a pawn up (+1.59).

39…Bd4 is a blunder: Black's winning chances go from 46% to 22%.

• White answers 40.Rb5: shores up the c5 pawn, which was under as much attack as it had defence (2 against 1).
• Better was 39…Be7 (+0.46).

Better: 39…Be7 stops Rxe4. After 40.Rc6 Rf8 41.Ke2 Bxd6 42.cxd6 Rfd8, the bishops are traded (+0.46).

40.Rb5! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Shores up the c5 pawn, which was under as much attack as it had defence (2 against 1).
• The next best move, 40.Rc6, would drop White's winning chances from 78% to 64% (+1.51).
• 40.Rb5 shores up the c5 pawn.
• Black answers 40…Re8.
• After 40…Re8 41.Rd1 Bc3 42.Ke2 Rxd6 43.cxd6 Kf6, White comes out two pawns up (+3.76).

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 11.Qg3: 21 moves in all, 11 by White and 10 by Black.
• Theory runs out after 11.Qg3: too few games between strong players reached this position to go further.