Lorenzo Lodici vs Max Warmerdam: game review

17.Nxd4! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Takes the knight on d4.
• Moving away uncovers the bishop on g2, which now hits the knight on c6.
• The next best move, 17.Nd2, would drop White's winning chances from 51% to 39% (−1.21).
• 17.Nxd4 stops …Nxb3 and uncovers an attack on the knight on c6.
• Black was threatening …Nxb3, winning a pawn. Nxd4 takes care of it.
• Trades knights.

27.Nd6! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The knight forks the rook and the pawn: both can't be saved at once.
• Moves the attacked knight to safety.
• The next best move, 27.Na3, would drop White's winning chances from 50% to 39% (−1.26).
• 27.Nd6 forks the rook and the pawn.
• Black answers 27…Nxd5, taking the bishop on d5, leaving White with an isolated pawn on b2 and a king with pawns missing from its shelter.
• Engine line: 27…Nxd5 28.cxd5 Rc2 29.f4 exf4 30.Rxd4 Kc7 (0.00).

28…Rc2! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The rook reaches the seventh rank, where 2 pawns sit and the king is cut off on the back rank.
• Attacks the b2 pawn, which is undefended.
• The next best move, 28…Kc7, would drop Black's winning chances from 50% to 35% (+1.67).
• 28…Rc2 wins a pawn, picking it up with 29…exf4, and gets the rook out of the way of Nxc8.
• Sets up a sequence and wins a pawn once the captures settle, picking it up with 29…exf4.
• White was threatening Nxc8, winning the exchange. The rook steps away.

31…Rxc1! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Takes the rook on c1.
• The next best move, 31…d3, would drop Black's winning chances from 48% to 31% (+2.21).
• 31…Rxc1 trades off the attacked rook instead of losing it to Rxc2+.
• White was threatening Rxc2+, winning a rook. The rook takes something with it instead.
• Trades rooks.
• The rook on c1 can be taken by the rook on e1.

48.hxg5! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Takes the pawn on g5.
• The next best move, 48.Ne6+, would drop White's winning chances from 59% to 44% (−0.61).
• 48.hxg5 wins a pawn and threatens gxf6, winning two pawns.
• Takes the g5 pawn and wins a pawn once the captures settle.
• It threatens gxf6, winning two pawns, so Black has to spend the next move on it.
• Black was threatening …gxh4, winning a pawn. hxg5 takes care of it.

50.gxf6 is a blunder: White's winning chances go from 50% to 7%.

• Black answers 50…Rg3: the rook joins the attack: it now hits 3 squares around the White king.
• After Rg3, Black wins 4 points of material within 5 moves.
• Better was 50.Rh1 (0.00): the rook takes the open h-file.

Better: 50.Rh1 takes the open h-file. Engine line: 50…Rc8 51.Rh3 Bf1 52.Rg3 Be2 53.gxf6 Rh8 54.Nxd4 exd4 55.Kxd4 Bd1 (0.00).

50…Rg3! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The rook joins the attack: it now hits 3 squares around the White king.
• Attacks the b3 pawn, which is undefended.
• The next best move, 50…Rg4+, would drop Black's winning chances from 93% to 10% (+6.10).
• 50…Rg3 wins a rook for a pawn, picking it up with 51…Rxc3, and threatens …Re3#, with mate in 1.
• Sets up a sequence and wins a rook for a pawn once the captures settle, picking it up with 51…Rxc3.
• It threatens …Re3#, with mate in 1, so White has to spend the next move on it.

51.Rc6+ is a blunder: White's winning chances go from 5% to 0%. It allows mate in 2.

• Black answers 51…Bxc6, which takes the rook on c6.
• After Bxc6, Black wins 2 points of material within 3 moves.
• Better was 51.Rc3 (−8.20), which protects the b3 pawn, which was hanging.

Better: 51.Rc3 threatens Rxg3, winning a rook and a bishop, and stops the mate threat …Re3#. After 51…Rxc3 52.Nxd4 exd4 53.f7 Rc8 54.Kxd4 Rf8, White is 6 points of material down (−8.20).

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 5.g3: 9 moves in all, 5 by White and 4 by Black.
• Theory runs out after 5.g3: too few games between strong players reached this position to go further.