Nihal Sarin vs Jorden Van Foreest: game review

17…g5 is a mistake: Black's winning chances go from 49% to 35%.

• White answers 18.Qd2, which attacks the g5 pawn, which is undefended.
• Better was 17…Be6 (+0.13): connects the rooks: development is complete and they can now support each other.

Better: 17…Be6 connects the rooks. After 18.f4 Nc6 19.Qd2 f6 20.f5 Bc4 21.fxg6 hxg6 22.e5 Bxf1 23.exf6 Rxf6, Black comes out the exchange plus a pawn up (+0.13).

23…Qc5 is a blunder: Black's winning chances go from 43% to 16%.

• White answers 24.Qg2: lines up queen and rook on the g-file, so the two pieces push in the same direction.
• Better was 23…d5 (+0.81): a pawn break: it challenges the e4 pawn to open lines.

Better: 23…d5 threatens …Bb5, winning a pawn, picking it up with 26…fxe5. After 24.exd5 Bb5 25.Qe1 Qd6 26.Qe3 Rg8 27.Bxe5 fxe5 28.Rg5 Rxg5 29.hxg5 Rf8, the rooks are traded and Black is a pawn down (+0.81).

25.Rxg6!! A real sacrifice: White gives up material and the engine still rates it best.

• Puts the rook on g6 where it can be taken.
• Taking is too dangerous: Black's best reply is 25…Qh5 26.Rg3 Rg8 27.Bxg8 instead (the engine rates it +5.26).
• Takes the knight on g6.
• Protects the h4 pawn, which was hanging.
• 25.Rxg6 wins a knight.
• Takes the knight on g6 and wins a knight once the captures settle.

• The idea: 25.Rxg6!! offers the rook on g6. Taking it gives White the material back and more.
• What White gives up: 25.Rxg6 puts the rook on g6 where it can be taken by the h7 pawn. That's a whole rook on offer.
• What it does instead: It takes the knight on g6.
• If Black takes the rook: 25…hxg6 is met by 26.Bxf6+, taking the f6 pawn with check. Then 27.Rxc5 takes the queen on c5, and 28.Qd2 threatens mate. White ends up two pawns ahead: White is winning (+4.76).
• Black's best try: Black's best is to leave the rook alone and play 25…Qh5. White answers 26.Rg3, and the rook on g6 gets away. Then 27.Bxg8 takes the rook on g8, and 28.Rxg8+ gives check. White ends up a rook's worth of material ahead: White is winning (+5.26).

26.Bxf6+! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Takes the pawn on f6.
• Moving away uncovers the rook on c1, which now hits the queen on c5.
• The next best move, 26.Bd5, would drop White's winning chances from 91% to 31% (−2.13).
• 26.Bxf6+ wins the queen for 8 points of material.
• Takes the f6 pawn and wins the queen for 8 points of material once the captures settle.
• Leaves Black with an isolated pawn on g6: a long-term weakness.

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 6.h3: 11 moves in all, 6 by White and 5 by Black.
• Theory runs out after 6.h3: too few games between strong players reached this position to go further.