nihalsarin vs gurelediz: game review

18.Qxb6 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 67% to 53%.

• Black answers 18…Qxb5, which takes the knight on b5.
• After Qxb5, Black wins 3 points of material within 4 moves.
• Better was 18.Nd6 (+1.94), which moves the attacked knight to safety.

Better: 18.Nd6 stops …Nc4. After 18…Bxd6 19.Qxb6 Ne8 20.Bxd6 Nxd6 21.Rc7, the bishops are traded (+1.94).

25.Rxa4! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Takes the rook on a4.
• The next best move, 25.Rxf1, would drop White's winning chances from 54% to 9% (−6.17).
• 25.Rxa4 wins a bishop and trades off the attacked rook instead of losing it to …Rxa1.
• Takes the rook on a4 and wins a bishop once the captures settle.
• Black was threatening …Rxa1, winning the exchange. The rook takes something with it instead.
• Black answers 25…Rxa4, taking back.

32.Nc5 is a blunder: White's winning chances go from 52% to 19%.

• Black answers 32…Bxc5, which takes the knight on c5.
• Better was 32.Rc7 (+0.20): the rook reaches the seventh rank, where 1 pawn sits and the king is cut off on the back rank.

Better: 32.Rc7 threatens Rxe7, winning a bishop. Engine line: 32…Kf8 33.Rb7 f6 34.Bc7 Ke8 35.Bb6 (+0.20).

32…Rc8 misses the chance 32.Nc5 gave: 32…Bxc5 would have punished it. Black's winning chances go from 81% to 51%.

• White answers 33.Nb3: moving away uncovers the rook on c1, which now hits the rook on c8.
• Better was 32…Bxc5 (−4.00), which takes the knight on c5.

Better: 32…Bxc5 trades bishop for knight. After 33.dxc5 f6 34.Bc7 Ra2 35.Ke1 Rxb2 36.Ba5, Black comes out a pawn up (−4.00).

40.Kf3 is a blunder: White's winning chances go from 45% to 13%.

• Black answers 40…Rc2: the rook reaches the seventh rank, where 1 pawn sits.
• Better was 40.Bf4 (−0.55): the bishop joins the attack: it now hits 2 squares around the Black king.

Better: 40.Bf4 joins the attack on the king. Engine line: 40…Be7 41.Kd1 Kg7 42.Bc7 Kh6 43.Bf4+ (−0.55).

40…Bh6 misses the chance 40.Kf3 gave: 40…Rc2 would have punished it. Black's winning chances go from 87% to 52%.

• White answers 41.Bf4.
• Better was 40…Rc2 (−5.20): the rook reaches the seventh rank, where 1 pawn sits.

Better: 40…Rc2 invades the seventh rank. After 41.Rxc2 bxc2 42.Ke2 Bb4 43.Bc7 Bd2, the rooks are traded (−5.20).

52.Nxe4 is a blunder: White's winning chances go from 42% to 11%.

• Black answers 52…dxe4, which takes the knight on e4.
• After dxe4, Black wins 3 points of material within 2 moves.
• Better was 52.Nd3 (−0.90).

Better: 52.Nd3 prepares Be3 and Kf3. After 52…Kg6 53.Be3 Bxe3 54.Kxe3 Kg5 55.Kf3, the bishops are traded (−0.90).

54…f5! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Protects the e4 pawn, which was hanging.
• A pawn break: it challenges the g4 pawn to open lines.
• The next best move, 54…Ke7, would drop Black's winning chances from 90% to 50% (0.00).
• 54…f5 stops Kxe4.
• White was threatening Kxe4, winning a pawn. f5 takes care of it.
• White answers 55.Kf4.

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 12…b5: 24 moves in all, 12 by White and 12 by Black.
• Theory runs out after 12…b5: too few games between strong players reached this position to go further.