Polish_fighter3000 vs FabianoCaruana: game review

15.Kg1 is a mistake: White's winning chances go from 41% to 27%.

• Black answers 15…Rb4, which attacks the queen.
• After Rb4, Black wins 1 point of material within 6 moves.
• Better was 15.a3 (−1.02), which pushes the passed pawn to a3.

Better: 15.a3 pushes the passed pawn to a3 and takes b4 away from the knight on c6 and the rook on b8. Engine line: 15…Nd4 16.Ne2 Nb3 17.Rb1 Nxc1 18.Nxc1 c4 (−1.02).

16…Rxf3!! A real sacrifice: Black gives up material and the engine still rates it best.

• Puts the rook on f3 where it can be taken.
• White can take, but after 17.gxf3 Nxe5 18.Qe2 Nf4 the engine rates it −3.73.
• Takes the knight on f3.
• 16…Rxf3 takes the knight on f3.
• White answers 17.gxf3, winning a rook for a piece and a pawn.
• Engine line: 17.gxf3 Nxe5 18.Qe2 Nf4 19.Qa6 Nxf3+ 20.Kf1 (−3.73).

• The idea: 16…Rxf3!! offers the rook on f3. Taking it gives Black the material back and more.
• What Black gives up: 16…Rxf3 puts the rook on f3 where it can be taken by the g2 pawn. That's a whole rook on offer.
• What it does instead: It takes the knight on f3.
• If White takes the rook: 17.gxf3 is met by 17…Nxe5, taking the e5 pawn and threatening …Nxf3+, winning the queen for a knight. Then 18…Nxf3 takes the f3 pawn, and 19…exd5 takes the knight on d5. Material is level and Black is clearly better (−2.73). This is White's best try.
• Without the sacrifice: The best move without the sacrifice, 16…Nd4, is clearly weaker (−3.13 against −3.73). White answers 17.a3, attacking the rook on b4. Black would still be winning, but far less than after 16…Rxf3.

19…Nf4! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• The next best move, 19…Qb8, would drop Black's winning chances from 80% to 66% (−1.82).
• 19…Nf4 threatens …Nxe2+, winning the queen, and stops Nb5.
• It threatens …Nxe2+, winning the queen, so White has to spend the next move on it.
• White was threatening Nb5, winning a knight for a pawn, picking it up with 21.Qxf3. Nf4 takes care of it.
• The engine's plan continues with …Qb8 and …Nxf3: this move is the first step.
• White answers 20.Qa6.

23…Qb7! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Attacks the knight on d5, which is undefended.
• Moves the attacked queen to safety.
• The next best move, 23…Nxe2, would drop Black's winning chances from 94% to 82% (−4.21).
• 23…Qb7 threatens …Qxd5, winning the queen, and gets the queen out of the way of Nxc7.
• It threatens …Qxd5, winning the queen, so White has to spend the next move on it.
• White was threatening Nxc7, winning a knight. The queen steps away.

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 8.Nc3: 15 moves in all, 8 by White and 7 by Black.
• Theory runs out after 8.Nc3: too few games between strong players reached this position to go further.