Wesley So vs Fabiano Caruana: game review

21…b4 is a blunder: Black's winning chances go from 33% to 12%.

• White answers 22.Qxc6, which takes the bishop on c6.
• After Qxc6, White wins 3 points of material within 2 moves.
• Better was 21…Rc5 (+1.98), which attacks the queen.

Better: 21…Rc5 wins a pawn, picking it up with 22…Rxc2, and threatens …Rxc3, winning the queen for 8 points of material. After 22.Qe3 Rxc2 23.Bxe6 fxe6 24.Qd3 Rb2, Black comes out a pawn up (+1.98).

33.hxg6! The only good move here: every alternative is clearly worse.

• Takes the pawn on g6.
• Pushes the passed pawn to g6, close to promotion.
• The next best move, 33.Rhf1, would drop White's winning chances from 96% to 86% (+4.83).
• 33.hxg6 wins a knight.
• Takes g6 and wins a knight once the captures settle.
• Protects the h6 pawn, which was hanging.

• Both sides followed opening theory up to 6.Qd3: 11 moves in all, 6 by White and 5 by Black.
• Theory runs out after 6.Qd3: too few games between strong players reached this position to go further.